Michael Peak, British Council

I attended a seminar given at Coventry University by Michael Peake on "HE Trends and Opportunities to 2020". It included research by the British Council on "the shape of things to come". The talk gave several sets of results comparing different countries' rates of students' movement between countries.

Some results included the following:

• UK growth rates of international students has always been positive since 1995.
• The USA growth rates of international students went negative after 9/11
• The Australian growth rates of international students decreased in 2009-10 following the tightening of related legislation. 
• Looking at a graph showing these rates over time, it looks like the UK follows Australia - will there be a similar decrease to that shown by Australia in the years to come?

 Looking at the countries and the number of students going overseas to study, compared with receiving overseas students:

• Korea and India are sending out more. (But this is changing as their recruitment is getting competitive.)
• USA, UK and Australia mainly recruit.
• Botswana is country that sends out the highest number of students compared with students going to that country

There's a positive relationship between HE enrolment and a growing GDP.

In 2010 there were 4.1 million international students in the UK. (1970: 800,000).  However, the global mobility rate remained at 2%

Student mobility is often linked with trade between two countries.  Also there are historic and cultural links. For example, looking at Canada, there are links between USA, India and China.

Michael looked at the predicted population growths in different countries. The main growth was predicted in India, Nigeria and Malaysia.  The good news is that these are some of the UK's key markets.

He thought that China would become a big host country for international students as he said that they have ambitious targets .He predicted that the biggest in 2020 would be Australia.

There is a significant growth in Trans National Education and this will be reported by the British Council in Dubai in March 2013.

Michael gave the example of India and said that International education was not necessarily the first option for a student. There are excellent universities in India and students would apply to go there as a first choice.

Best thing: camupses serving niche markets (as done by Coventry) are excellent ways into other countries as they are seen to be non-threatening to the countries involved.

Project report is here:
www.britishcouncil.org/higher-education

Also, they will help you market your course (Services for International Education Marketing)
siem.britishcouncil.org